Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017-2021

Beginning December 2016, sylvatic yellow fever (YF) outbreaks spread into southeastern Brazil, and Minas Gerais state experienced two sylvatic YF waves (2017 and 2018). Following these massive YF waves, we screened 187 free-living non-human primate (NHPs) carcasses collected throughout the state between January 2019 and June 2021 for YF virus (YFV) using qPCR. One sample belonging to a Callithrix, collected in June 2020, was positive for YFV. The viral strain belonged to the same lineage associated with 2017-2018 outbreaks, showing the continued enzootic circulation of YFV in the state. Next, using data from 781 NHPs carcasses collected in 2017-18, we used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to identify the spatiotemporal and host-level drivers of YFV infection and intensity (an estimation of genomic viral load in the liver of infected NHP). Our GAMMs explained 65% and 68% of variation in virus infection and intensity, respectively, and uncovered strong temporal and spatial patterns for YFV infection and intensity. NHP infection was higher in the eastern part of Minas Gerais state, where 2017-2018 outbreaks affecting humans and NHPs were concentrated. The odds of YFV infection were significantly lower in NHPs from urban areas than from urban-rural or rural areas, while infection intensity was significantly lower in NHPs from urban areas or the urban-rural interface relative to rural areas. Both YFV infection and intensity were higher during the warm/rainy season compared to the cold/dry season. The higher YFV intensity in NHPs in warm/rainy periods could be a result of higher exposure to vectors and/or higher virus titers in vectors during this time resulting in the delivery of a higher virus dose and higher viral replication levels within NHPs. Further studies are needed to better test this hypothesis and further compare the dynamics of YFV enzootic cycles between different seasons. Author SummaryIn 2017 and 2018 massive sylvatic yellow fever (YF) outbreaks took place in Minas Gerais Brazil. To investigate yellow fever virus (YFV) circulation following these massive outbreaks, we investigated samples from 187 free-living non-human primate (NHPs) collected between January 2019 and June 2021. One sample belonging to a Callithrix, collected in June 2020 was positive for YFV. This virus was closely related to YFV from previous outbreaks (2017-2018) showing the continued enzootic circulation of YFV in the state. Next, we investigated the drivers of YFV infection and intensity (an estimation of viral load in each infected NHP) during the 2017-18 outbreaks. The odds of YFV infection in NHPs were lower in urban areas compared to rural ones as expected in sylvatic cycles. There were strong temporal and spatial patterns were observed for YFV infection and intensity, especially in the eastern part of Minas Gerais state. The higher YFV infection and intensity observed during the warm/rainy season (as opposed to the cold/dry one) could be related to higher exposure to vectors and/or higher virus titers in vectors during this time. The possible delivery of a higher virus dose in NHPs could lead to higher viral replication levels within NHPs explaining the higher intensity of infection during warm/rainy season. Further studies are needed to better test this hypothesis and further compare the dynamics of YFV enzootic cycles between different seasons.