Detection of COVID-19 Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Homes Using Built Environment Testing for SARS-CoV-2: A Multicentre Prospective Study

BackgroundEnvironmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 via wastewater has become an invaluable tool for population-level surveillance of COVID-19. Built environment sampling may provide a more spatially refined approach for surveillance of COVID-19 in congregate living settings and other high risk settings (e.g., schools, daycares). MethodsWe conducted a prospective study in 10 long-term care homes (LTCHs) across three cities in Ontario, Canada between September 2021 and May 2022. Floor surfaces were sampled weekly at multiple locations (range 10 to 24 swabs per building) within each building and analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The exposure variable was detection of SARS-CoV-2 on floors. The primary outcome was the presence of a COVID-19 outbreak in the week that floor sampling was performed. ResultsOver the 9-month study period, we collected 3848 swabs at 10 long-term care homes. During the study period, 19 COVID-19 outbreaks occurred with 103 cumulative weeks under outbreak. During outbreak periods, the proportion of floor swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 50% (95% CI: 47-53) with a median quantification cycle of 37.3 (IQR 35.2-38.7). During non-outbreak periods the proportion of floor swabs positive was 18% (95% CI:17-20) with a median quantification cycle of 38.0 (IQR 36.4-39.1). Using the proportion of positive floor swabs for SARS-CoV-2 to predict COVID-19 outbreak status in a given week, the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.78-0.92). Using thresholds of [≥]10%, [≥]30%, and [≥]50% of floor swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 yielded positive predictive values for outbreak of 0.57 (0.49-0.66), 0.73 (0.63-0.81), and 0.73 (0.6-0.83) respectively and negative predictive values of 0.94 (0.87-0.97), 0.85 (0.78-0.9), and 0.75 (0.68-0.81) respectively. Among 8 LTCHs with an outbreak and swabs performed in the antecedent week, 5 had positive floor swabs exceeding 10% at least five days prior to outbreak identification. For 3 of these 5 LTCHs, positivity of floor swabs exceeded 10% more than 10 days before the outbreak being identified. ConclusionsDetection of SARS-CoV-2 on floors is strongly associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in LTCHs. These data suggest a potential role for floor sampling in improving early outbreak identification.