Estimating Food Security after Nuclear Winter: Preliminary analysis for Aotearoa New Zealand

AimWe aimed to estimate the current dietary energy content of food exports for Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) and food security after "nuclear winter" scenarios following a nuclear war. MethodsFrom published sources we estimated dietary energy available from the major domains of food exports, with adjustments for wastage. The impacts on food production in NZ after three nuclear winter scenarios were based on those published in Nature Food in 2022 and from an earlier NZ Planning Council study. ResultsCurrent major food exports are equivalent to 3.9 times current dietary energy intakes for all NZ citizens ie, 34,100 kJ (8150 kcal) per person per day. Exported dairy products were estimated to be able to provide 338% of this energy intake, followed by exports of: meat (34%); fruit (8.6%), alcohol (4.8%), marine products (4.6%), and vegetables (2.7%). After the various nuclear winter scenarios considered (minimal to severe), food production available from diverted exported foods was estimated to still be 3.6 to 1.5 times current daily energy intakes. ConclusionsThis analysis suggests that NZ could have excess food production capacity, even after a severe nuclear winter scenario. But substantial further research is needed to clarify agricultural impacts and the role of nuclear war impacts on the interlinked domains of energy, transport, manufacturing, finance, industrial materials, trade and societal functioning.