Disruption of long-term psychological distress trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from three British birth cohorts

ImportanceMental health disorders were among the leading global contributors to years lived with disability prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, and growing evidence suggests that population mental health outcomes have worsened since the pandemic started. The extent that these changes have altered common age-related trends in psychological distress, where distress typically rises until mid-life and then falls in both sexes, is unknown. ObjectiveTo analyse whether long-term pre-pandemic psychological distress trajectories have altered during the pandemic, and whether these changes have been different across generations and by sex. DesignCross-cohort study with prospective data collection over a 40-year period (earliest time point: 1981; latest time point: February/March 2021). SettingPopulation-based (adult general population), Great Britain. ParticipantsMembers of three nationally representative birth cohorts which comprised all people born in Great Britain in a single week of 1946, 1958, or 1970, and who participated in at least one of the data collection waves conducted after the start of the pandemic (40.6%, 42.8%, 39.4%, respectively). Exposure(s)Time, COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)Psychological distress factor scores, as measured by validated self-reported questionnaires. Results16,389 participants (2,175 from the 1946 birth cohort, 52.8% women; 7,446 from the 1958 birth cohort, 52.4% women; and 6,768 from the 1970 birth cohort, 56.2% women) participated in the study. By September/October 2020, psychological distress levels had reached or exceeded the levels of the peak in the pre-pandemic life-course trajectories, with larger increases in younger cohorts: Standardised Mean Differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of -0.02 [-0.07, 0.04], 0.05 [0.02, 0.07], and 0.09 [0.07, 0.12] for the 1946, 1958, and 1970 birth cohorts, respectively. Increases in distress were larger among women than men, widening the pre-existing inequalities observed in the pre-pandemic peak and in the most recent pre-pandemic assessment. Conclusions and RelevancePre-existing long-term psychological distress trajectories of adults born between 1946 and 1970 were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among women, who reached the highest levels ever recorded in up to 40 years of follow-up data. This may impact future trends of morbidity, disability, and mortality due to common mental health problems.