Biogeographical history shapes evolution of reproduction in a global warming scenario

Adaptive evolution might be critical for animal populations to thrive on the fast-changing natural environments. Ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to global warming and, although their limited coping ability has been suggested, few real-time evolution experiments have directly accessed their evolutionary potential. Here, we report a long-term experimental evolution study addressing the evolution of thermal reaction norms, after [~]30 generations under different thermal environments. We analyzed the evolutionary dynamics of Drosophila subobscura populations as a function of the thermally variable environments in which they evolved and their distinct biogeographical background. Our results showed clear differences between the historically differentiated populations: while the northern D. subobscura populations showed a temporal increase in performance at higher temperatures, their southern counterparts presented the opposite pattern. This suggests that the northern populations might be better equipped to cope with the current rising temperatures. Remarkably, no effect of thermal selection was found. The lack of a clear long-term adaptive response at higher temperatures after evolution under a global warming scenario raises concerns about the evolutionary potential of ectotherms. Our results highlight the complex nature of thermal responses in face of environmental heterogeneity and emphasize the importance of considering intra-specific variation in thermal evolution studies.