Back

Prediction of ADHD diagnosis using brief, low-cost, clinical measures: a competitive model evaluation

Mooney, M. A.; Neighbor, C.; Karalunas, S.; Dieckmann, N. F.; Nikolas, M.; Nousen, E.; Tipsord, J.; Song, X.; Nigg, J. T.

2021-12-30 psychiatry and clinical psychology
10.1101/2021.12.23.21268330 medRxiv
Show abstract

Proper diagnosis of ADHD is costly, requiring in-depth evaluation via interview, multi-informant and observational assessment, and scrutiny of possible other conditions. The increasing availability of data may allow the development of machine-learning algorithms capable of accurate diagnostic predictions using low-cost measures. We report on the performance of multiple classification methods used to predict a clinician-consensus ADHD diagnosis. Classification methods ranged from fairly simple (e.g., logistic regression) to more complex (e.g., random forest), and also included a multi-stage Bayesian approach. All methods were evaluated in two large (N>1000), independent cohorts. The multi-stage Bayesian classifier provides an intuitive approach that is consistent with clinical workflows, and is able to predict ADHD diagnosis with high accuracy (>86%)--though not significantly better than other commonly used classifiers, including logistic regression. Results suggest that data from parent and teacher surveys is sufficient for high-confidence classifications in the vast majority of cases using relatively straightforward methods.

Matching journals

The top 10 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

50% of probability mass above

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.