SARS-COV-2 Omicron variant predicted to exhibit higher affinity to ACE-2 receptor and lower affinity to a larger range of neutralizing antibodies, using a rapid assessment platform

Rapid assessment of whether a pandemic pathogen may have increased transmissibility or be capable of evading existing vaccines and therapeutics is critical to mounting an effective public health response. Over the period of seven days, we utilized rapid computational prediction methods to evaluate potential public health implications of the emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Specifically, we modeled the structure of the Omicron variant, examined its interface with human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) and evaluated the change in binding affinity between Omicron, ACE-2 and publicly known neutralizing antibodies. We also compared the Omicron variant to known Variants of Concern (VoC). Seven of the 15 Omicron mutations occurring in the spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) occur at the ACE-2 cell receptor interface, and therefore may play a critical role in enhancing binding to ACE-2. Our estimates of Omicron RBD-ACE-2 binding affinities indicate that at least two of RBD mutations, Q493R and N501Y, contribute to enhanced ACE-2 binding, nearly doubling delta-delta-G (ddG) free energies calculated for other VoCs. Binding affinity estimates also were calculated for 55 known neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Analysis of the results showed that Omicron substantially degrades binding for more than half of these neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and for roughly 10 times as many of the antibodies than the currently dominant Delta variant. This early study lends support to use of rapid computational risk assessments to inform public health decision-making while awaiting detailed experimental characterization and confirmation.