Land use land cover dynamics through time and their proximate drivers of change in a tropical mountain system: a case study in a highland landscape of northern Ecuador

Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by land use pressures, reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide a large diversity of benefits to people and to be able to achieve them in the long term. The analysis of land use pressures is often superficial and very general, although they are characterized by numerous interactions and strong differences in their local dynamics. We used a variety of freely available geospatial and temporal data and methods to assess and explain patterns of land use land cover (LULC) change, focusing on native ecosystem dynamics, in a sensitive region of the northern Ecuadorian Andes. Our results demonstrate a dynamic and clear geographical pattern of distinct LULC transitions through time, explained by different combination of socio-economic factors, pressure variables and environmental parameters, from which ecological context variables, such as slope and elevation, were the main drivers of change in this landscape. We found that deforestation of remnant native forest and agricultural expansion still occur in higher elevations located, while land conversion toward anthropic environments were observed in lower elevations to the east of the studied territory. Our findings also reveal an unexpected stability trend of paramo and a successional recovery of previous agricultural land to the west and center of the territory which could be explained by agricultural land abandonment. However, the very low probability of persistence of montane forests in most of the studied landscape, highlights the risk that the remnant montane forests will be permanently lost in a few years, posing a greater threat to the already vulnerable biodiversity and limiting the capacity ecosystem service provisioning. The dynamic patterns through space and time and their explanatory drivers, found in our study, could help improve sustainably resource land management in vulnerable landscapes such as the tropical Andes in northern Ecuador.