Projected dynamics of breeding habitat suitability for a steppe-land bird warrant anticipatory conservation actions

Understanding spatial and temporal variations of habitat suitability is fundamental for species conservation under global change. Steppic species are particularly sensitive to anthropogenic change and have undergone large declines in the last decades. We aimed to describe current and future breeding habitat suitability for the Eurasian stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus, a steppic species of conservation concern, and to identify critical areas for its conservation. We collected 1628 presence records covering the period 1992-2016. We developed a species distribution model using a dynamic Maxent algorithm and a set of pseudo-absences with a spatial density weighted on a fixed kernel density estimated on the presences, to mitigate the potential sampling bias. We projected this model under a set of carbon emission, socioeconomic and land-use/land-cover scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Finally, we described the cell-wise and mean change of breeding habitat suitability through consecutive time intervals and identified the areas critical for the species conservation. All scenarios predicted a short-term northward shift of suitable areas, followed by a period of stability. We found no consistent trends in the mean change of breeding habitat suitability, and similar extents of suitable areas under current and future scenarios. Critical areas for the conservation of the species are mainly located in Northern Europe, Israel and parts of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. According to our results, the Eurasian stone-curlew has the potential to maintain viable populations in the Western Palearctic, but dispersal limitations might hinder the colonization of shifted suitable areas. Targeted conservation interventions in the critical areas are therefore recommended to secure the future of the species under global change.