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Data analysis of COVID-19 wave peaks in relation to latitude and temperature for multiple nations

Jain, M.; Aloni, S.; Adivarekar, P.

2021-08-12 health informatics
10.1101/2021.08.12.21261974 medRxiv
Show abstract

It was observed that the multiple peaks of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) appeared in different seasons in different countries. There were countries where the COVID-19 peak occurred during extremely low temperatures, such as Norway, Canada and on the other hand there were countries with high-temperature ranges such as Brazil, India, UAE. Most of the high-latitude countries received their outbreak in winter and most of the countries near the equator mark the outbreak during the summer. Most of the biological organisms have their growth dependant on the temperature, and hence we explored that if there is any relation of temperature versus COVID-19 outbreak in the particular country. It was also seen that people are not behaving differently during the peak of the COVID-19 wave, hence it was important to know whether the COVID-19 virus has evolved or the global temperature variation caused these multiple peaks. This work focuses on finding the effect of temperature variation on the COVID-19 outbreak. We used Levenberg-Marquardt technique to find the correlation between the temperature at which COVID-19 outbreak peaks and the latitude of the particular country. We found that between the temperature range of 14 {degrees}C to 20 {degrees}C spread of the COVID-19 is minimal. Based on our results we can also say that the COVID-19 outbreak is seen in lower temperature (0 {degrees}C to 13 {degrees}C) ranges as well as in the higher temperature ranges (21 {degrees}C to 35 {degrees}C). The current data analysis will help the authorities to manage their resources in advance to prepare for any further outbreaks that might occur in the COVID-19 or even in the next pandemic.

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