A physically plausible incidence rate for compartmental epidemiological models
Pitschel, T.
Show abstract
Motivated by the recent trajectory of SARS-Cov-2 new infection incidences in Germany and other European countries, this note reconsiders the need to use a non-linear incidence rate function in deterministic compartmental models for current SARS-Cov-2 epidemic modelling. Employing a homogenous contact model, it derives such function systematically using stochastic arguments. The presented result, which is relevant to modelling of proliferation of arbitrary infectious diseases, integrates well with previous analyses, in particular closes an analytical "gap" mentioned in London and Yorke (1973) and complements the stability related work on incidence rate functions of the form {beta}IpSq seen for example in Liu, Hethcote and Levin (1987).
Matching journals
The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Lockdown Measures and their Impact on Single- and Two-age-structured Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico 97%
- Post-pandemic modeling of COVID-19: Waning immunity determines recurrence frequency 97%
- On the design and stability of cancer adaptive therapy cycles: deterministic and stochastic models 97%
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.