Noninvasive genetic surveys before and after a megafire detect displacement of migratory mule deer

Due to climate change and past logging and fire suppression, the western US are experiencing increasingly large and frequent wildfires. Understanding how wildlife respond to these mega-fires is becoming increasingly relevant to protect and manage these populations. However, the lack of predictability inherent in such events makes studies difficult to plan. We took advantage of a large high-severity wildfire that burned adjacent to an ongoing study of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on their summer range upslope of the fire to investigate their displacement onto our study area both immediately and upon their return to summer range the following year. We used spatial capture-recapture models in conjunction with noninvasive fecal DNA sampling to estimate density and non-spatial Pradel robust-design models to estimate apparent survival and recruitment rates. Compared to density before the fire, we observed an increase in deer density and an increase in per-capita recruitment rates one month after the fire. These findings suggest that the immediate response of at least some deer was to flee the fire upslope onto the study area rather than to downslope toward their winter range. These changes did not carry over into the following year, however, suggesting that deer formerly using the burned area as summer range may have returned there despite the high severity of the fire, or may have chosen new areas for their summer range. This suggests that, at least in the short term, the fire did not negatively affect the deer population.