From theory to experiment and back again -- Challenges in quantifying a trait-based theory of predator-prey dynamics

Food webs map feeding interactions among species, providing a valuable tool for understanding and predicting community dynamics. Trait-based approaches to food webs are increasingly popular, using e.g. species body sizes to parameterize dynamic models. Although partly successful, models based on body size often cannot fully recover observed dynamics, suggesting that size alone is not enough. For example, differences in species use of microhabitat or non-consumptive effects of other predators may affect dynamics in ways not captured by body size. Here, we report on the results of a pre-registered study (Laubmeier et al., 2018) where we developed a dynamic food-web model incorporating body size, microhabitat use, and non-consumptive predator effects and used simulations to optimize the experimental design. Now, after performing the mesocosm experiment to generate empirical time-series of insect herbivore and predator abundance dynamics, we use the inverse method to determine parameter values of the dynamic model. We compare four alternative models with and without microhabitat use and non-consumptive predator effects. The four models achieve similar fits to observed data on herbivore population dynamics, but build on different estimates for the same parameters. Thus, each model predicts substantially different effects of each predator on hypothetical new prey species. These findings highlight the imperative of understanding the mechanisms behind species interactions, and the relationships mediating the effects of traits on trophic interactions. In particular, we believe that increased understanding of the estimates of optimal predator-prey body-size ratios and maximum feeding rates will improve future predictions. In conclusion, our study demonstrates how iterative cycling between theory, data and experiment may be needed to hone current insights into how traits affect food-web dynamics.