Preventing disproportionate mortality in ICU overload situations: Empirical evidence from the first COVID-19 wave in Europe

Avoiding overloading the healthcare system remains a central issue during the COVID-19 pandemic. The logic of preventing such overload situations is intuitive since the level and quality of critical care is a function of the available capacity to provide it. Where this capacity is no longer available due to a surge in admissions, patient outcomes will invariably deteriorate in the long run - ultimately leading to disproportionate mortality. In this paper, we study the three worst affected regions in Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany during the first COVID-19 wave in the spring of 2020. We report on quantitative analyses that show how mortality rises non-linearly as the proportion of COVID-19 patients in the ICU increases. We identify changes to the patient-staff ratio, increasing exhaustion and infection levels amongst staff, as well as equipment shortages, as likely causes driving this rise in mortality. We explore these findings further with interviews of key stakeholders in the respective healthcare systems. Our results demonstrate that the common approach of managing COVID-19 surges by stretching ICU capacity in hotspot regions may be detrimental to patient outcomes. Instead, we posit that transferring patients proactively out of developing hotspots to less affected regions, well before high ICU workload situations emerge, will improve overall patient outcomes.