SARS-CoV-2 pandemic dynamics and infection tracing in Denmark
Jorgensen, M. W. N.; Rasmussen, S.; Hoiby, N.; Hoiby, N.
Show abstract
We model and simulate the COVID-19 infection and healthcare dynamics in Denmark from the onset till March 5, 2021. The simulation is matched and calibrated to hospital and death data as well as antibody population measurement. In this work we focus on comparing the time evolution of the estimated infection level with the daily identified infected individuals based on the national testing and contact tracing program. We find that the national testing program on average identifies 1/3 of the infected individuals July 1, 2020 - March 5, 2021. Our investigations indicate the current program does not have a proper balance between random probing, focused contact tracing, and testing prioritization. Too much of the program operates as a semi-random daily sampling of part of the population. We propose a policy with a focus on local infection tracing and interventions.
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