The differential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states

Medicaid expansion is a federally-funded program to expand health care access and coverage to economically challenged populations by increasing eligibility to Medicaid enrollment and investing in public health preventive services in the individual states. Yet, when the COVID-19 epidemic plagued the country, fourteen states were practicing their chosen decision not to enact the Medicaid expansion policy. We examined the consequences of this nationwide split in Medicaid design on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic between the expansion and non-expansion states. Our study shows that, on average, the expansion states had 217.56 fewer confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents than the non-expansion states [-210.41; 95%CI (-411.131) - (-2.05); P<0.05]. Also, the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in Medicaid expansion states was longer than that of non-expansion states by an average of 1.68 days [1.6826; 95%CI 0.4035-2.9617; P<0.05]. These findings suggest that proactive investment in public health preparedness was an effective protective policy measure in this crisis, unsurpassed by the benefits of COVID-19 emergency plans and funds. The study findings could be relevant to policymakers and healthcare strategists in non-expansion states considering their states preparations for such public health crises.