Recent and forecast post-COVID trends in hospital activity in England amongst 0 to 24 year olds: analyses using routine hospital administrative data

BackgroundIncreasing hospital use in the past decade has placed considerable strain on children and young peoples (CYP) health services in England. Greater integration of healthcare may reduce these increases. We projected CYP healthcare activity out to 2040 and examined the potential impact of integrated care systems on projected activity. MethodsWe used routine administrative data (Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)) on emergency department (ED) attendances, emergency admissions and outpatient (OP) attendances for England by age-group for 0-24 year olds from 2007 to 2017. Bayesian projections of future activity used projected population and ethnicity and future child poverty rates. Cause data were used to identify ambulatory-care-sensitive-conditions (ACSC). FindingsED attendances, emergency admissions and OP attendances increased in all age groups from 2007 to 2017. ED and OP attendances increased 60-80% amongst children under 10 years. ACSC and neonatal causes drove the majority of increases in emergency admissions. Activity was projected to increase by 2040 by 50-145% for ED attendances, 20-125% for OP attendances and 4-58% for total admissions. Scenarios of increasing or decreasing child poverty resulted in small changes to forecast activity. Scenarios in which 50% of ACSC were seen outside hospital in integrated care reduced estimated activity in 2040 by 21.2-25.9% for admissions and 23.5-30.1% for ED attendances across poverty scenarios amongst infants. InterpretationThe rapid increases in CYP healthcare activity seen in the past decade may continue for the next decade given projected changes in population and child poverty, unless some of the drivers of increased activity are addressed. Contrary to these pessimistic scenarios, our findings suggest that development of integrated care for CYP at scale in England has the potential to dramatically reduce or even reverse these forecast increases FundingNil funding obtained. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThere has been marked increases in hospital use (inpatient, outpatient and emergency department (ED)) by children and young people (CYP). Search of the PubMed database using the search terms: ((((("child"[MeSH Major Topic]) OR ("adolescent"[MeSH Major Topic])) OR ("infant"[MeSH Major Topic]))) AND ((healthcare use[Text Word])) OR (emergency admission[Text Word])) AND (united kingdom[Text Word]). Drivers of increased activity include population growth and sociodemographic factors, help-seeking behaviour, growth in medical knowledge and capability, and by factors within the health system. Additional factors in child health include increased survival of premature neonates and those with congenital conditions and rising parental expectations of modern medicine. Previous studies have shown that ambulatory-care-sensitive-conditions (ACSC) are responsible for much of the increase in CYP emergency activity in England and Scotland. Added value of this studyThis is the first study to use existing data to project possible future scenarios for CYP healthcare activity out to 2030 and 2040 in any country. Our future scenarios are based upon authoritative projections for population, ethnic diversity and child poverty in England and allow us to estimate the potential impact of integrated care scenarios in which ACSC are treated outside hospital. We show that future projected CYP activity is very high if mitigations such as integrated care are not instituted in England. Implications of all the available evidenceHealthcare activity has grown dramatically over the last decade in CYP, largely due to ACSC and the consequences of premature delivery. Projections to 2040 suggest that similar increases are likely over the next 2 decades without action to reduce child poverty and implementation of integrated care at scale in the NHS.