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COVID-19 propagation by diffusion - a two-dimensional approach for Germany

Baerwolff, G. K. F.

2021-01-20 infectious diseases
10.1101/2021.01.15.21249893 medRxiv
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Diffusion comes anytime and everywhere. If there is a gradient or a potential difference of a quantity a diffusion process happens and this ends if an equilibrium is reached only. The concentration of a species maybe such quantity, or the voltage. An electric currant will be driven by a voltage difference for example. In this COVID-19 pandemic one observes both regions with low incidence and other ones with high incidence. The local different people density could be a reason for that. In populous areas like big cities or congested urban areas higher COVID-19 incidences could be observed than in rural regions. The aim of this paper consists in the application of a diffusion concept to describe one possible issue of the the COVID-19 propagation. This will be discussed for the German situation based on the quite different incidence data for the different federal states of Germany. With this ansatz some phenomenoms of the actual development of the pandemic could be confirmed. The model gives a possibility to investigate certain scenarios like border-crossings or local spreading events and their influence on the COVID-19 propagation as well.

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