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The interplay between subcritical fluctuations and import: understanding COVID-19 epidemiology dynamics
2020-12-30
epidemiology
Title + abstract only
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The effective reproduction ratio r(t) of an epidemic, defined as the average number of secondary infected cases per infectious case in a population in the current state, including both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts, controls the transition between a subcritical threshold regime (r(t) < 1) and a supercritical threshold regime (r(t) > 1). While in subcritical regimes, an index infected case will cause an outbreak that will die out sooner or later, with large fluctuations observed when appr...
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