Checking the calculation model for the coronavirus epidemic in Berlin. The first steps towards predicting the spread of the epidemic.

A calculation model has been proposed to forecast the spread of the [C]OVID-19 epidemic under quarantine conditions. The resulting simple analytical relationships allow for the assessment of factors determining the intensity of the spread of infection, including the changing requirements for quarantine severity. The prediction method presented makes it possible to calculate both the total number of infected persons and the maximum rate of spread of infection. Following the publication of this work in May 2020, in October this year there was a new surge in the virus epidemic, the intensity of which depends on the populations compliance with the rules of hygiene and social distance. Comparison of the results of the model calculations with the statistics for Berlin shows that they are of satisfactory quality. In particular, it shows that with an epidemic growth rate of around 1,000 people/day, unless additional quarantine measures are taken, the total number of infections can be expected to approach 100,000 within approximately six months. It is shown that the intensity of the viruss spread depends on the socio-demographic composition of the population in different districts of Berlin and age structure. The possible impact of behavioural factors dependent on the psychological state of people on the spread of the epidemic, which can be assessed by analysing changes in heart rate, is discussed.