Don't wait, re-escalate: delayed action results in longer duration of COVID-19 restrictions
Hurford, A.; Watmough, J.
Show abstract
Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions have significant economic and social costs, and minimizing their duration is paramont. Assuming that interventions are sufficient to reduce infection prevalence, we use a simple linear SIR model with case importation to determine the relationship between the timing of restrictions, duration of measures necessary to return the incidence to a set point, and the final size of the outbreak. The predictions of our linear SIR model agree well with COVID-19 data from Atlantic Canada, and are consistent with the predictions of more complex deterministic COVID-19 models. We conclude that earlier re-escalation of restrictions results in shorter disruptions, smaller outbreaks, and consequently, lower economic and social costs. Our key message is succinctly summarized as dont wait, re-escalate since delaying re-escalation of restrictions results in not only more infections, but also longer periods of restrictions.
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