High-Quality Masks Can Reduce Infections and Deaths in the US
Rosenstrom, E.; Oruc Aglar, B.; Ivy, J. S.; Keskinocak, P.; Mayorga, M.; Swann, J. L.
Show abstract
ObjectivesTo evaluate the effectiveness of widespread adoption of masks or face coverings to reduce community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19. MethodsWe employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model, where Covid-19 progresses across census tracts according to a variant of SEIR. We considered a mask order that was initiated 3.5 months after the first confirmed Covid-19 case. We evaluated scenarios where wearing a mask reduces transmission and susceptibility by 50% or 80%; an individual wears a mask with a probability of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, or 100%. ResultsIf 60% of the population wears masks that are 50% effective, this decreases the cumulative infection attack rate (CAR) by 25%, the peak prevalence by 51%, and the population mortality by 25%. If 100% of people wear masks (or 60% wear masks that are 80% effective), this decreases the CAR by 38%, the peak prevalence by 67%, and the population mortality by 40%. ConclusionsAfter community transmission is present, masks can significantly reduce infections.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Threshold analyses on rates of testing, transmission, and contact for COVID-19 control in a university setting 97%
- Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction 95%
- Using mobile phone data to estimate dynamic population changes and improve the understanding of a pandemic: A case study in Andorra 95%
Similar papers in this journal
- The Joint Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: An Agent-Based Simulation 93%
- SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and population immunity in southern New England, March 2020 - May 2021 92%
- Re-emergence of respiratory syncytial virus following the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: a modeling study 92%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Using an Agent-Based Model to Assess K-12 School Reopenings Under Different COVID-19 Spread Scenarios – United States, School Year 2020/21 95%
- Assessing the efficacy of interventions to control indoor SARS-Cov-2 transmission: an agent-based modeling approach 95%
- Assessing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium by means of an extended SEIQRD model and public mobility data 94%
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.