Temporal analysis of the clinical evolution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil

The objective was to analyze the evolution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the first four months of the pandemic in Mato Grosso do Sul, a state in the Center-West region of Brazil, as well as the factors related to the prevalence of deaths. This was an observational study with a cross-sectional and time series design based on data from the information system of the State Department of Health of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The microdata from the epidemiological bulletin is open and in the public domain; consultation was carried out from March to July 2020. The incidences were stratified per 100,000 inhabitants. The cross-section study was conducted to describe COVID-19 cases, and the trend analysis was performed using polynomial regression models for time series, with R-Studio software and a significance level of 5%. There was a predominance of women among the cases, and of men in terms of deaths. The presence of comorbidities was statistically related to mortality, particularly lung disease and diabetes, and the mean age of the deaths was 67.7 years. Even though the macro-region of the state capital, Campo Grande, had a higher number of cases, the most fatalities were in the macro-region of Corumba. The trend curve demonstrated discreet growth in the incidence of cases between epidemiological weeks 11 and 19, with a significant increase in week 20 throughout the state. The trend for COVID-19 in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul was upward and regular, but there was an important and alarming exponential increase. The health authorities should adopt the necessary measures to enforce health precautions and encourage social distancing of the population so that health services will be able to care for those afflicted by the disease, especially older people, those with comorbidities, and vulnerable sectors of the population.