Analysis of geo-temporal evolution and modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Libya

Having been experiencing years of political fragmentation and military conflict, Libya was poorly prepared to meet the challenges of the COVId-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, restriction of travel and social distancing rules were put in place days before the first case was detected. During the next two months, the number of cases grew gradually to 77 cases, followed by a rapid spread that has produced 3691 confirmed cases and 80 deaths by the end of July 2020. The turning point on 26 May 2020 was preceded three weeks earlier by the arrival of the first of a series of flights repatriating Libyans who became stranded abroad when air travel was suspended. In the first weeks of the surge, the number of cases was particularly high in the less densely populated southern region, raising questions about the implementation of social distancing and other protective measures in that region. The epidemic in Libya was modeled using the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical model of infectious disease epidemics. Three scenarios were developed based on three estimates of the fraction of the population exposed to the disease (1.5, 2.5 and 3.5%). The modeling portrays the peak of the epidemic around early August and estimates that the number of deaths will flatten out around early November at between 250 and 600, depending on the parameter employed. More deaths than those estimated implies that it is more widespread than assumed. Greater promotion of awareness and understanding of social distancing practices and their value is needed, particularly in the south, and better protection of the elderly should decrease mortality.