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Modelling the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic and the role of government interventions

Majek, O.; Ngo, O.; Jarkovsky, J.; Komenda, M.; Razova, J.; Dusek, L.; Pavlik, T.

2020-09-11 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.09.10.20192070 medRxiv
Show abstract

In the Czech Republic, the first COVID-19 cases were confirmed on 1 March 2020; early population interventions were adopted in the following weeks. A simple epidemiological model was developed to help decision-makers understand the course of the epidemic and perform short-term predictions. In this paper, we present the use of the model and estimated changes in the reproduction number (decrease from > 2.00 to < 1.00 over March and April) following adopted interventions.

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