Process-based model of fish incubation survival for designing reservoir operations: a case study for Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon

Allocating reservoir flows to meet societal and ecosystem needs under increasing demands for water and increasing climatic variability presents challenges to resource managers. Often, regulated rivers have been operated to meet flow and temperature compliance points that mimic historical patterns. Because it is difficult to assess if this approach is efficient or equitable, new more process-based approaches to regulation are being advanced. This paper describes such an approach with a model of egg incubation survival of Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon (SRWRC, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Thermal mortality only occurs in a critical window around egg hatching when the embryo is most sensitive to temperature stress. The duration of the critical window has significant implications for Shasta Reservoir operations that are designed to control temperature during SRWRC incubation. Previous operations sought to maintain a low temperature over the entire incubation period. However, model analysis suggests that targeting cold water directly to the critical egg hatching stage provides higher survival while requiring less cold water resources. The calibrated model is publicly accessible through a web interface connected to real-time river and fish databases and a river temperature forecast model. The system is an example of the next step of river management that integrates databases with hydrological and process-based biological models for real-time analysis and for forecasting effects of river operations on the environment.