The risk for insufficient chill accumulation: a climate change perspective for apple and cherry production in the United States

Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on chill accumulation in the warmer production regions of the world, where insufficient chill events occur and their frequency is increasing. In contrast, we focus on a region with relatively cold winters-the Pacific Northwest United States (PNW)-where insufficient chill events are currently absent, and quantify the potential for introduction of these risks under climate change. Results identified spatial variation within the PNW, with chill accumulation projected to increase in some areas but decrease in others. There was also spatiotemporal variation in the driving factors of changes to chill accumulation. Even with decreases in chill accumulations, there are likely minimal issues with insufficient chill accumulation. However, delayed chill accumulation in combination with advances in the onset of heat accumulation can potentially shift the region from one where spring phenology is primarily forcing-driven to one where the dynamic interplay between chilling and forcing processes become important. These interactions might create production risks for varieties with high chill requirements, post mid-21st-century under high emissions scenarios. Future work should focus on understanding, modeling, and projecting responses across these overlapping chilling and forcing processes. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW.