Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation
Bailey, L. D.; van de Pol, M.; Adriaensen, F.; Barba, E.; Bellamy, P. E.; Bouvier, J.-C.; Burgess, M. D.; Charmantier, A.; Cusimano, C.; Doligez, B.; Drobniak, S. M.; Dubiec, A.; Eens, M.; Eeva, T.; Ferns, P. N.; Goodenough, A. E.; Hartley, I. R.; Hinsley, S. A.; Ivankina, E.; Juskaitis, R.; Kempenaers, B.; Kerimov, A. B.; Lauriere, A.; Lavigne, C.; Leivits, A.; Mainwaring, M. C.; Matthysen, E.; Nilsson, J.-A.; Orell, M.; Rytkonen, S.; Senar, J. C.; Sheldon, B. C.; Sorace, A.; Stenning, M. J.; Torok, J.; Vatka, E.; Vriend, S. J. G.; Visser, M. E.
Show abstract
The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two European songbirds covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity compared with those in evergreen and mixed habitats. Strikingly, however, the lowest sensitivity was seen in populations that had experienced the greatest change in climate. Therefore, we predict that the strongest phenological advancement will not occur in those populations with the highest sensitivity. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.
Matching journals
The top 4 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Pervasive morphological responses to climate change in bird body and appendage size 95%
- High standing genetic variation in an invasive plant allows immediate evolutionary response to climate warming 92%
- Recurrent extreme climatic events are driving gorgonian populations to local extinction: low adaptive potential to marine heatwaves. 91%
Similar papers in this journal
- Empirical patterns of environmental variation favor the evolution of adaptive transgenerational plasticity 91%
- Exploring links between climatic predictability and the evolution of within- and transgenerational plasticity 91%
- Increased microclimatic variation in artificial nests does not create ecological traps for a secondary cavity breeder 90%
Similar papers in this journal
- A global meta-analysis reveals higher variation in breeding phenology in urban birds than in their non-urban neighbours 95%
- Local adaptation in climate tolerance at a small geographic scale contrasts with broad latitudinal patterns 93%
- Phenotypic plasticity is aligned with phenological adaptation on both micro- and macroevolutionary timescales 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- Treeline ecotones shape the distribution of avian species richness and functional diversity in south temperate mountains 93%
- Urbanization and a green corridor do not impact genetic divergence in common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) 93%
- Shared transcriptional responses to con- and heterospecific behavioral antagonists in a wild songbird 91%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.