Moose or spruce: A systems analysis model for managing conflicts between moose and forestry in Sweden

Sweden has the worlds highest density of moose (Alces alces). Moose is not only a valuable game species; it also causes forest damages and traffic accidents. To avoid moose browsing, foresters respond by planting spruce (Picea abies) to an extent that reshapes the forest landscape with impacts on both production and biodiversity. To address this problem and maintain a healthy moose population in balance with the other interests, an adaptive management based on the knowledge and experiences of local hunters and landowners is advocated. However, the different stakeholders do not agree on what is an appropriate moose population, which leads to conflicts that are hard to resolve. A key problem is that it is very difficult to encompass and foresee long-term consequences of different options for moose hunting and forest management. This makes it challenging to form coherent strategies that integrate different sectorial interests at a national level. To address this issue, we have developed a systems analysis framework for integrated modeling of the moose population, forestry, and their interactions and consequences for biodiversity. We analyze the short and long-term consequences for multiple scenarios of moose hunting and forest management. Based on the results we elucidate and quantify the trade-offs and possible synergies between moose hunting and forest production. This analysis can be used to support better informed and more constructive discussions among the stakeholders in the Swedish forest sectors, and to support policies for long term sustainable forest and moose management.