Correlation between daily infections and fatality rate due to Covid-19 in Germany
Mergel, D.
Show abstract
The officially reported daily Covid-19 fatality rate is modelled with a trend line based on a nominal day-to-day reproduction rate and a cosine to take account of weekly fluctuations. Although the time trajectories of officially reported infections and fatalities are pronouncedly different, the reproduction rates obtained therefrom are similar. The long-term effective reproduction rate is around 0.835 and the administrative measures to contain the pandemic seem not to have an immediate reducing effect but well the ease of restrictions an increasing one. The fatality trajectory represented by its trend line can be projected from the number of daily infections by assuming a time lapse between symptom onset and death between 17 and 19 days and a time-dependent nominal lethality. The time trajectory of this lethality increases from 2.5% at March 16 when public life was restricted to 6% within 20 days indicating relatively more infections of vulnerable people. After stipulating face mask wearing at April 27, the nominal lethality decreases down to 1% later in summer. A detailed analysis shows that mask wearing really reduces the number of fatal infections and the officially reported daily infections in May and June are less lethal than before.
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