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An Analysis of Territorial Patterns in COVID-19 Mortality in France, Spain, Italy and the UK

Zavatta, R.

2020-07-29 public and global health
10.1101/2020.07.27.20162677 medRxiv
Show abstract

This paper provides an overview of territorial patterns of COVID-19 deaths in four European countries severely affected by the pandemic, Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The analysis focuses on cumulated COVID-19 mortality at the sub-regional level, following the territorial subdivision of countries adopted by the European Union. The paper builds upon a dataset with highly granular information on COVID- 19 deaths assembled from various sources. The analysis shows remarkable differences in territorial patterns of COVID-19 mortality, both within and across the four countries reviewed. Results somewhat differ depending on the aspect considered (concentration of deaths or mortality rates) but, in general, Italy, France and Spain display significant territorial disparities, with selected sub-regions being disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Instead, the picture is more uniform in the UK, with comparatively lower differences across the various sub- regions. These findings suggest that analyses of COVID-19 mortality at the national level (and, sometimes, even at the regional level) may conceal major differences and therefore be of limited use, both analytically and from an operational viewpoint.

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