Back

A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19

2020-07-04 epidemiology Title + abstract only
View on medRxiv
Show abstract

The existence of a universal law which maps the bell curve of daily cases to a sigmoid curve for cumulative ones is used for making robust estimations about the final outcome of a disease. Computations of real time effective reproduction rate are presented and its limited usefulness is derived. After using methods ESE & EDE we are able to find the inflection point of the cumulative curve under consideration and study its time evolution. Since mortality processes tend to follow a Gompertz distrib...

Predicted journal destinations

1
Scientific Reports
701 training papers
Top 4% 17.8%
2
PLOS ONE
1737 training papers
Top 38% 17.8%
3
Infectious Disease Modelling
50 training papers
#1 7.9%
4
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
17 training papers
Top 0.2% 5.1%
5
PLOS Computational Biology
141 training papers
Top 4% 4.2%
6
Epidemics
96 training papers
Top 4% 3.9%
7
Epidemiology and Infection
80 training papers
Top 5% 2.0%
8
Royal Society Open Science
49 training papers
Top 2% 2.0%
9
Frontiers in Public Health
135 training papers
Top 15% 2.0%
10
Journal of Theoretical Biology
29 training papers
Top 0.8% 2.0%
11
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
166 training papers
Top 11% 1.6%
12
Mathematical Biosciences
15 training papers
Top 0.1% 1.6%
13
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
54 training papers
Top 3% 1.6%
14
Science of The Total Environment
80 training papers
Top 4% 1.6%
15
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
100 training papers
Top 8% 1.5%
16
BMC Infectious Diseases
110 training papers
Top 15% 1.3%
17
Heliyon
57 training papers
Top 5% 1.3%
18
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
116 training papers
Top 23% 1.2%
19
JMIRx Med
29 training papers
Top 2% 1.2%
20
PeerJ
46 training papers
Top 4% 1.2%
21
BMC Public Health
148 training papers
Top 26% 1.0%
22
eLife
262 training papers
Top 45% 1.0%
23
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
115 training papers
Top 20% 1.0%
24
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
17 training papers
Top 1% 0.7%
25
BMC Medical Research Methodology
41 training papers
Top 9% 0.7%
26
Science
46 training papers
Top 7% 0.7%
27
Nature Communications
483 training papers
Top 60% 0.7%
28
Frontiers in Medicine
99 training papers
Top 24% 0.7%