A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19
Christopoulos, D. T.
Show abstract
The existence of a universal law which maps the bell curve of daily cases to a sigmoid curve for cumulative ones is used for making robust estimations about the final outcome of a disease. Computations of real time effective reproduction rate are presented and its limited usefulness is derived. After using methods ESE & EDE we are able to find the inflection point of the cumulative curve under consideration and study its time evolution. Since mortality processes tend to follow a Gompertz distribution, we apply the properties of it and introduce novel estimations for both the time remaining after inflection time and the capacity of the curve. Special properties of sigmoid curves are used for assessing the quality of estimation and as indices for the cycle completion. Application is presented for COVID-19 evolution for most affected countries and the World.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- An improved mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy, with Monte Carlo simulations and error analyses 96%
- A novel deterministic forecast model for the Covid-19 epidemic based on a single ordinary integro-differential equation 96%
- Prediction of the time evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy by a Gauss Error Function and Monte Carlo simulations 96%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Model Based Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Level in Austria and Consequences for Herd Immunity Effects 96%
- Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown 96%
- Estimation of COVID-19 recovery and decease periods in Canada using machine learning algorithms 96%
Similar papers in this journal
- Switched forced SEIRDV compartmental models to monitor COVID-19 spread and immunization in Italy 96%
- Modelling the potential influence of human migration and strain mutation on Ebola virus disease dynamics 95%
- Understanding the transmission pathways of Lassa Fever: a mathematical modeling approach 95%
Similar papers in this journal
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.