Curve-fitting approach for COVID-19 data and its physical background
Nishimoto, Y.; Inoue, K.
Show abstract
Forecast of the peak-out and settling timing of COVID-19 at an early stage should help the people how to cope with the situation. Curve-fitting method with an asymmetric log-normal function has been applied to daily confirmed cases data in various countries. Most of the curve-fitting could show good forecasts, while the reason has not been clearly shown. The K value has recently been proposed which can provide good reasoning of curve-fitting mechanism by corresponding a long and steep slope on the K curve with fitting stability. Since K can be expressed by a time differential of logarithmic total cases, the physical background of the above correspondence was discussed in terms of the growth rate in epidemic entropy.
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