Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: I. A Two-Component Model
Dimaschko, J.
Show abstract
We consider the impact of superspreading on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. A two-component model of the epidemic has been developed, in which all infected are divided in two groups. The groups are asymptomatic superspreaders spreading the infection and sensitive persons which can only get infection. Once infected the sensitive exhibit clear symptoms and become isolated. It is shown that the ratio of increment of the number of daily cases in the beginning of the epidemic and decrement at the end of the epidemic is equal to the ratio of the spreading rates of the infection transmission from the superspreaders to potential superspreaders and to the sensitive persons, respectively. On the basis of data from 12 countries and territories it is found that the superspreaders transmit the infection to potential superspreaders approximately 4 times more often then to the sensitive persons. Specific measures to limit the epidemical incidence are proposed. The possibility of an allergic component in the disease is discussed.
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