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Management strategies and prediction of COVID-19 by a fractional order generalized SEIR model

Guo, L.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, Y.

2020-06-22 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.06.18.20134916 medRxiv
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In this project, we study a class of fractional order generalized SEIR epidemic models. Based on the public data from Jan. 22th to May 15th, 2020, we reliably estimate key epidemic parameters and make predictions on the peak point and possible ending time for the target region. We analyze the current management strategy and predict the future implementation of different management strategies. Numerical simulations which support our analysis are also given.

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