Back

Management strategies and prediction of COVID-19 by a fractional order generalized SEIR model

Guo, L.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, Y.

2020-06-22 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.06.18.20134916 medRxiv
Show abstract

In this project, we study a class of fractional order generalized SEIR epidemic models. Based on the public data from Jan. 22th to May 15th, 2020, we reliably estimate key epidemic parameters and make predictions on the peak point and possible ending time for the target region. We analyze the current management strategy and predict the future implementation of different management strategies. Numerical simulations which support our analysis are also given.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
14.4%
2
Nonlinear Dynamics
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
10.1%
3
Scientific Reports
○ 3102 papers in training set
Top 17%
6.4%
4
PLOS ONE
● 4510 papers in training set
Top 33%
4.3%
5
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
4.3%
6
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
4.0%
7
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.9%
8
Frontiers in Physics
○ 20 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.7%
9
Quantitative Biology
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.7%
50% of probability mass above
10
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
● 16 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.6%
11
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
○ 84 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
2.1%
12
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 50 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.1%
13
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
14
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1633 papers in training set
Top 16%
1.7%
15
Biology
○ 43 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
1.7%
16
Physical Review E
● 95 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
1.7%
17
Journal of Theoretical Biology
○ 144 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.7%
18
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
○ 126 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.7%
19
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 140 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.7%
20
Mathematics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.3%
21
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.3%
22
Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
○ 25 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
1.2%
23
Epidemics
○ 104 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.0%
24
Royal Society Open Science
● 193 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.0%
25
IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics
● 34 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
26
Physical Biology
○ 43 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.7%
27
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 124 papers in training set
Top 7%
0.7%
28
Mathematical Biosciences
○ 42 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.6%
29
Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience
○ 67 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.6%
30
PeerJ
◐ 261 papers in training set
Top 17%
0.6%