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Modeling the Spring 2020 New York City COVID-19 Epidemic: New Criteria and Methods for Prediction

Barlow, D.; Baird, J. K.

2020-06-16 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.06.12.20130005 medRxiv
Show abstract

We report here on results obtained using the SIR epidemic model to study the spring 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC). An approximate solution is derived for this non-linear system which is then used to derive an expression for the time to maximum infection. Additionally, expressions are obtained for estimating the transmission and recovery parameters using data collected in the first ten days of the epidemic. Values for these parameters are then generated using data reported for the spring 2020 NYC COVID-19 epidemic which are then used to estimate the time to maximum infection and the maximum number of infected. Complete details are given so that the method can be used in the event of future epidemics. An additional result of this study is that we are able to suggest a unique mitigation strategy.

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