A Model for the Testing and Tracing Needed to Suppress COVID-19
Wang, V.
Show abstract
This paper presents the first analytical model for calculating how many tests and tracing needed to suppress COVID-19 transmission. The number of people needs to be tested daily is given by: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 1]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(1)C_FD Where N is the size of the population in consideration Ar is the attack rate at any given time Tp is the test-positive rate {rho}is the percentage of infectious people that have to be detected per day. To make the effective reproduction number Re below 1,{rho} must satisfy the following equation: O_FD O_INLINEFIG[Formula 2]C_INLINEFIGM_FD(2)C_FD Where R0 is the basic reproduction number, S/N is the percentage of the susceptible population over the entire population, D is the length of the infectious period, and {eta}is the percentage of close contacts that have to be traced. This model provides insights and guidance to deploy the testing and tracing resources optimally. An Excel model is attached to facilitate easy calculation of the number of tests and tracing needed. This model is also applicable to any infectious disease that can be suppressed by testing and tracing.
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