The expediency of local modelling to aid national responses to SARS-CoV-2.

BackgroundWith the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic gripping most of the globe, healthcare and economic recovery strategies are being explored currently as a matter of urgency. The underpinning rationale of this paper is that we believe that health and care services are provided locally, therefore, local implications of national policy need to be reflected when informing national responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. MethodsWe adopted the assumptions underlying the United Kingdom governments national epidemiological model which influences the national policy response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We used these in a local context and show projections in terms of presentations of symptomatic patients differ in a variety of settings. Setting: North of England, United Kingdom, population modelled at four local constituent levels which aggregated gives a total population of 3.2m. ResultsWe clearly demonstrate that there is significant difference in the way the national modelling outputs are replicated at local levels. Specifically, in terms of projected increased levels of demand for services on the local health and care systems. ConclusionsWe present significant evidence of differing timelines specifically in terms of subsequent projected peak demands. Additionally, it clearly indicates varying levels of such demand throughout the four modelled localities. These idiosyncrasies are masked by both regional and national approaches to modelling. We urge readers to ensure that any national policy is appropriately adopted through the use of complementary bottom up approach, to suit local health and care systems. Finally, we share our methodology to ensure other professionals could replicate this study elsewhere.