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COVID-19 Trend and Forecast in India: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Chaurasia, A. R.

2020-06-02 health informatics
10.1101/2020.05.26.20113399 medRxiv
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This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown have resulted in a spike in the reported confirmed cases. The analysis also suggests that if the current trend continues, in the immediate future, then the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country is likely to increase to 21 thousand by 15 June 2020 whereas the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 will increase to around 422 thousand. The analysis calls for a population-wide testing approach to check the increase in the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19.

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