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Time delay epidemic model for COVID-19

Maleewong, M.

2020-05-26 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.23.20111500 medRxiv
Show abstract

A time delay epidemic model is presented for the spread of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. The time delay effects affect infected individuals. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the transmission and recovery rates. The basic reproduction number is estimated in terms of the average infected ratio. This ratio can be used to monitor the policy performance of disease control during the spread of the disease.

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