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A modified SEIR Model with Confinement and Lockdown of COVID-19 for Costa Rica

de-Camino-Beck, T.

2020-05-26 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.19.20106492 medRxiv
Show abstract

The fast moving post-modern society allows for individuals to move fast in and between different countries, making it a perfect situation for the spread of emerging diseases. COVID-19 emerged with properties of a highly contagious disease, that has spread rapidly around the world. SIR/SEIR models are generally used to explain the dynamics of epidemics, however Coronavirus has shown dynamics with constant non-pharmaceutical interventions, making it difficult to model with these simple models. We extend an SEIR model to include a confinement compartment (SEICR) and use this to explain data from COVID-19 epidemic in Costa Rica. Then we discuss possible second wave of infection by adding a time varying function in the model to simulate cyclic interventions.

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