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Exploring the spread dynamics of COVID-19 inMorocco

NAJI, M.

2020-05-22 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.18.20106013 medRxiv
Show abstract

Despite some similarities of the dynamic of COVID-19 spread in Morocco and other countries, the infection, recovery and death rates remain very variable. In this paper, we analyze the spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Morocco within a standard susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model. We have combined SEIRD model with a time-dependent infection rate function, to fit the real data of i) infection counts and ii) death rates due to COVID-19, for the period between March 2nd and Mai 15th 2020. By fitting the infection rate, SEIRD model placed the infection peak on 04/24/2020 and could reproduce it to a large extent on the expense of recovery and death rates. Fitting the SEIRD model to death rates gives rather satisfactory predictions with a maximum of infections on 04/06/2020. Regardless of the low peak position, the confirmed cases and transmission rate were well reproduced.

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