The demographic buffering strategy has a threshold of effectiveness to increases in environmental stochasticity

O_LIAnimal populations have developed multiple strategies to deal with environmental change. Among them, the demographic buffering strategy consists on constraining the temporal variation of the vital rate(s) (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction) that most affect(s) the overall performance of the population. Given the increase in environmental stochasticity of the current global change scenario, identifying the thresholds beyond which populations are not able to remain viable -despite their potential buffering strategies- is of utmost importance. C_LIO_LITortoises are known to buffer the temporal variation in survival (i.e. this vital rate has the highest contribution to the population growth rate{lambda} ) at the expense of a high variability on reproductive rates (lowest contribution to{lambda} ). To identify the potential threshold in buffering ability, here we use field data collected across a decade on 15 locations of Testudo graeca along South-Eastern Spain. We analyse the effects of environmental variables (precipitation, temperature, and NDVI) on the probability of laying eggs and the number of eggs per clutch. Finally, we couple the demographic and environmental data to parametrise integral projection models (IPMs) to simulate the effects of different scenarios of drought recurrence on population growth rate. C_LIO_LIWe find that droughts negatively affect the probability of laying eggs, but the overall effects on the population growth rates of T. graeca under the current drought frequencies (one per decade) are negligible. However, increasing the annual frequency of droughts decreases the buffering ability of T. graeca populations, with a threshold at three droughts per decade. C_LIO_LIAlthough some species may buffer current environmental regimes by carefully orchestrating how their vital rates vary through time, a demographic buffering strategy may alone not warrant population viability in extreme regimes. Our findings support the hypothesis that the buffering strategy indeed has a threshold of effectiveness. Our methodological approach also provides a useful pipeline for ecologists and managers to determine how effective the management of environmental drivers can be for demographically buffering populations, and which scenarios may not provide long-term species persistence. C_LI