Quantitative Estimation of Covid-19 Related Unemployment On Suicide and Excess Mortality in the United States

ImportanceThe Covid-19 pandemic has driven behavioral and governmental responses with large impacts on economic activity. Estimates of indirect health effects of economic impacts may inform societal action. ObjectiveTo estimate the size of the impact of Covid-19 unemployment on suicides and deaths from all causes. DesignRisk assessment applying of pooled effects hazard ratios from published meta-analyses of observational epidemiological studies, post-Covid-19 unemployment, current labor force composition data, and current age-adjusted mortality rates. ResultsThis risk assessment estimates approximately 9,700 excess annual deaths from suicide and 66,000 annual deaths from all causes among those recently unemployed due to Covid-19. Conclusions and RelevanceIndirect health impacts of societal responses to Covid-19 are identifiable, multiple and quantifiable. Adverse health impacts, such as those from unemployment, may endure longer than those of the Covid-19 pandemic itself. Decision-makers can include indirect health impacts in policy-making calculi for Covid-19 mitigation and suppression strategies. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat are the expected impacts of post Covid-19 unemployment on excess suicide and premature death. FindingsA risk assessment applying pooled summary risk estimates from meta-analyses of observational studies predicts approximately 9,700 excess annual deaths from suicide and 66,000 annual deaths from all causes among those recently unemployed due to Covid-19. MeaningIndirect health impacts of societal responses to Covid-19 are identifiable, multiple and quantifiable.