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SIR-simulation of Corona pandemic dynamics in Europe

Nesteruk, I.

2020-04-25 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.22.20075135 medRxiv
Show abstract

The SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model, statistical approach to the parameter identification and the official WHO daily data about the confirmed cumulative number of cases were used to estimate the characteristics of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Austria and Moldova. The final sizes and durations of epidemic outbreaks in these countries are calculated.

Matching journals

The top 3 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Journal of Clinical Medicine
○ 97 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
22.9%
Similar papers in this journal
2
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 8%
19.3%
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3
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 3%
11.5%
Similar papers in this journal
50% of probability mass above
4
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
6.5%
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5
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.6%
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6
Frontiers in Medicine
○ 120 papers in training set
Top 1%
2.2%
7
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.8%
8
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.8%
9
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.5%
10
PeerJ
◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 8%
1.1%
11
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.0%
12
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.0%
13
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 53%
1.0%
14
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
15
Journal of Medical Virology
○ 140 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.9%
16
Frontiers in Physics
○ 21 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
0.9%
17
Biology
○ 45 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.9%
18
Cureus
○ 68 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
19
IFAC-PapersOnLine
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
0.9%
20
Mathematics
○ 11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
0.9%
21
BMC Medical Research Methodology
○ 47 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.9%
22
Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
○ 29 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
0.6%
23
Frontiers in Immunology
○ 638 papers in training set
Top 10%
0.6%
24
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 21%
0.6%
25
Nonlinear Dynamics
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
0.5%
26
BMC Medicine
○ 176 papers in training set
Top 6%
0.5%
27
Communications Biology
○ 993 papers in training set
Top 37%
0.5%
28
Biomedical Signal Processing and Control
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
0.5%
29
Frontiers in Pharmacology
○ 111 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.5%
30
Informatics in Medicine Unlocked
○ 22 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.5%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.