Back

Time-Varying COVID-19 Reproduction Number in the United States

Gunzler, D.; Sehgal, A. R.

2020-04-15 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.04.10.20060863 medRxiv
Show abstract

The basic reproduction number is the average number of people to whom an infected person transmits the infection when virtually all individuals in a population are susceptible. We sought to calculate the current reproduction number for COVID-19 for each state in the United States. For the entire United States, the time-varying reproduction number declined from 4.02 to 1.51 between March 17 and April 1, 2020. We also found that the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 has declined in most states over the same two week period which suggests that social isolation measures may be having a beneficial effect.

Matching journals

The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

50% of probability mass above

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.