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Protecting our health care workers while protecting our communities during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison of approaches and early outcomes in two Italian regions, Italy, 2020

Binkin, N.; Salmaso, S.; Michieletto, F.; Russo, F.

2020-04-14 public and global health
10.1101/2020.04.10.20060707 medRxiv
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IntroductionItaly, which has been hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, has an overriding national strategy, but its 21 regions have adapted their response based on the organization of their curative and public health services. In this paper, we compare short-term outcomes for two northern Italian regions which had almost simultaneous initial outbreaks: Lombardy, which had a patient-centered approach that relied on primary care physicians and hospital care, and Veneto, which focused on community-based diagnosis and care. MethodsWe used numerator and denominator data from public Italian government sources to calculate reported rates of COVID-19 testing/1000, COVID-19 cases/100,000 overall and for health care workers (HCWs) and non-HCWs, deaths per 100,000, and the percent of cases admitted to hospitals and ICUs for February 24-April 1, 2020. ResultsAs of April 1, 2020, Lombardy experienced 44,733 cases and 7,539 deaths; for Veneto, the corresponding values were 9,625 and 499. The cumulative case rate was 445/100,000 for Lombardy and 196/100,000 for Veneto, a 2.3-fold difference. Mortality rates were 7.5 times higher in Lombardy than in Veneto (75/100,000 and 10/100,000, respectively). Cumulative rates of testing were nearly twice as high in Veneto and were 2.7 times higher in the first week of the epidemic. In Lombardy, 51.5% of patients were admitted, including, 5.2% to intensive care units; for Veneto, the corresponding figures were 25.1% and 4.3%, respectively. HCWs account for 14.3% of all cases in Lombardy compared with 4.4% in Veneto. In Lombardy, the rate among HCWs was 19.1 times higher than in the general population (6,924/100,000 versus 362/100,000), while in Veneto it was 3.9 times higher (676/100,000 versus 172/100,000). DiscussionThe community-based approach in Veneto appears to be associated with substantially reduced rates of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and infection in HCWs compared with the patient-centered approach in Lombardy. Our findings suggest that the impact of COVID-19 can be reduced through strong and aggressive public health efforts to confirm and isolate initial cases and contacts in a timely way and to minimize unnecessary contact between HCWs and cases through home-based testing and pro-active home follow-up.

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