Back

On the corona infection model with contact restriction

Mimkes, J.; Janssen, R.

2020-04-11 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.08.20057588 medRxiv
Show abstract

This article presents a mathematical infection model that is designed to estimate the course of coronavirus infection in Germany for several days in advance: How many people become ill or die, what is the temporal development? If the contact restriction is perfect, then the model predicts the development of the virus infection after the initial subsidence of the infection. However, since this restriction cannot always be strictly adhered to, the model is dynamically adapted to the development. This makes it possible to estimate the number of infected people, the number of new infections and deaths in Germany about a week in advance.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
The European Physical Journal Plus
13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
13.2%
2
Scientific Reports
3612 papers in training set
Top 4%
10.0%
3
PLOS ONE
5266 papers in training set
Top 23%
7.5%
4
Journal of Mathematical Biology
40 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
4.5%
5
Infectious Disease Modelling
54 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
4.1%
6
Mathematical Biosciences
49 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
3.5%
7
Epidemiology and Infection
89 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
3.5%
8
Journal of Clinical Medicine
97 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
3.5%
9
Nonlinear Dynamics
10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.5%
50% of probability mass above
10
Frontiers in Physics
21 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.3%
11
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
235 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.2%
12
PLOS Computational Biology
1863 papers in training set
Top 12%
2.2%
13
Royal Society Open Science
214 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.8%
14
Journal of Theoretical Biology
162 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.7%
15
Physical Biology
46 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.7%
16
Physical Review E
112 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.5%
17
Peer Community Journal
281 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.5%
18
Epidemics
116 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.5%
19
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
23 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
1.2%
20
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
11 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
1.0%
21
Frontiers in Public Health
148 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.0%
22
Frontiers in Immunology
638 papers in training set
Top 9%
0.9%
23
Mathematics
11 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
0.9%
24
Biology Methods and Protocols
61 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
25
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
32 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
0.9%
26
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
72 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
27
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
92 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.6%
28
Nature Communications
5641 papers in training set
Top 58%
0.6%
29
Physical Review Research
49 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
0.6%
30
Swiss Medical Weekly
15 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
0.6%