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A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany

Barbarossa, M. V.; Fuhrmann, J.; Heidecke, J.; Vinod Varma, H.; Castelletti, N.; Meinke, J. H.; Krieg, S.; Lippert, T.

2020-04-11 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.04.08.20056630 medRxiv
Show abstract

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020. We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at informing on the possible application or lifting of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models allow to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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