Back

When will the Covid-19 epidemic fade out?

Renna, I.

2020-03-30 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.03.27.20045138 medRxiv
Show abstract

A discrete-time deterministic epidemic model is proposed with the aim of reproducing the behaviour observed in the incidence of real infectious diseases. For this purpose, we analyse a SIRS model under the framework of a small world network formulation. Using this model, we make predictions about the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy. A Gaussian fit is also performed, to make a similar prediction.

Matching journals

The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
22.4%
2
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 18%
10.0%
3
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
9.1%
4
Physical Review E
● 112 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
5.6%
5
Royal Society Open Science
● 214 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
5.6%
50% of probability mass above
6
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
4.4%
7
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
3.3%
8
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 12%
2.2%
9
Journal of Clinical Medicine
○ 97 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.9%
10
Nonlinear Dynamics
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.7%
11
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
● 15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.7%
12
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
● 17 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.7%
13
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.7%
14
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.5%
15
Epidemics
○ 116 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.4%
16
Mathematical Biosciences
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.2%
17
Epidemiology and Infection
◐ 89 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.1%
18
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.0%
19
Frontiers in Physics
○ 21 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
0.9%
20
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
0.9%
21
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
● 235 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
22
Nature Communications
○ 5641 papers in training set
Top 56%
0.9%
23
PeerJ
◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 12%
0.6%
24
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 7%
0.6%